Mini Oral Australian Epidemiology Association ASM 2018

Use of cross-sectoral data linkage to predict high-rate offenders in Western Australia (#10)

Anna Ferrante 1 , Sean Randall 1 , Hilde Tubex 2 , Frank Morgan 2
  1. Curtin University, Bentley, WA, Australia
  2. University of Western Australia, Perth, WA

High-rate, persistent (so-called ‘prolific’) offenders have a major impact on crime rates and public perceptions of safety, and place a large burden on communities.

Using population-level data, we identified ‘prolific’ offenders in WA. Official criminal records of all offenders born 1980-1995 were linked to administrative health, education and child protection records. Data on families (parents & siblings) were also included. The study identified factors that distinguish between prolific & non-prolific offenders. We also compared a) male & female offenders, and b) Indigenous & non-Indigenous offenders.

Prolific males (3%) accounted for 21% of CJS contacts. For male Indigenous offenders (e.g.), being the subject of a maltreatment allegation and/or having a serious mental health condition before the age of 18 increased the odds of being a prolific offender. Being placed in out of home care and becoming a teenage father also increased the likelihood of being a prolific offender. Two criminogenic factors - early onset of offending (formal contact before age 12) and early violence - emerged as the most significant risk factors associated with prolific offending.

Crime prevention has long been the remit of criminal justice agencies; yet, other agencies such as child protection and mental health services have much of the (early) information needed to target prevention. Criminal justice agencies are well-placed to administer crime reduction strategies through the targeting of early-onset and early-violent offenders. A combined approach is likely to have the greatest effect on reducing the burden on individuals and society.